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Arctic / China

 by Jaffa Levy

The Arctic Is Becoming the World’s Most Strategic Trade Corridor, and Power Will Belong to Those Who Can Physically Keep It Open

The Arctic is no longer a distant frontier but an emerging economic corridor. As ice recedes and new shipping lanes become viable, the decisive factor will not be legal claims or rhetoric, but capability. Icebreakers, energy equity and logistics infrastructure are redefining strategic balance in the High North, turning mobility into influence and redundancy into leverage.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / China / United States

 by Jaffa Levy

China’s AI Governance Model vs America’s Frontier Race: Why the Real Battle Is Over Who Can Control Intelligence at Scale

As Washington accelerates frontier AI and tightens chip controls, Beijing is building something different: a state-coordinated system that treats artificial intelligence as national infrastructure. The decisive question is no longer who builds the smartest model, but who can govern intelligence at scale without destabilising labour markets, information systems, and political legitimacy.

Europe / Germany / United States

 by Jaffa Levy

Germany’s Atlantic settlement with the United States is breaking and Europe is being forced to adapt

Germany’s postwar security model rested on delegated legitimacy: American power guaranteed order while Berlin embedded restraint inside NATO and law. That settlement is now fracturing not because the United States has withdrawn, but because its behaviour has become politically and legally unpredictable, forcing Europe into rearmament by necessity rather than ambition.

Culture / Britain / Europe / Germany / Opinion / United States

 by Jaffa Levy

Populism Is Not a Democratic Breakdown. It Is What Happens When Politics Is Shut Down

Populism does not arise because voters reject democracy. It arises when democratic systems remove major economic and social decisions from public contest and insulate them from political challenge. When elections no longer change outcomes, disruption becomes the only remaining lever. What looks like instability is often delayed system feedback from depoliticised governance.

Defence / China / Diplomacy / Iran

 by Jaffa Levy

China Will Not Let Iran Fall

China is not preparing to fight for Iran. It is doing something more consequential: managing the Iran file as part of its western energy and security perimeter, using diplomacy, regional mechanisms, security signalling, and deniable support to prevent isolation or collapse.

Defence / Iran / Israel

 by Jaffa Levy

The Iran War Did Not End the Nuclear Crisis. It Broke the System That Contained It

The June 2025 war did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear risk or restore stable deterrence. It damaged the verification framework that made coercion credible, replacing a manageable threshold problem with enduring strategic ambiguity. In doing so, it narrowed military options, raised the cost of escalation, and pushed diplomacy back to the centre not by choice, but by constraint.

Uncategorized

 by Jaffa Levy

AI Is Making Cognition Cheap Faster Than Institutions Can Cope

Artificial intelligence is collapsing the cost of cognition at a measurable rate. But labour markets, legal systems, and regulators still price work, responsibility, and permission as if cognition were scarce. The result is not mass automation, but institutional strain: tasks disappear before roles do, liability concentrates upstream, and governance lags by design.

Commentry / Japan / Opinion

 by Jaffa Levy

Sanae Takaichi Talks Tough on Immigration While Quietly Opening Japan’s Doors to Survive Demographic Collapse

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is warning voters about the dangers of immigration at the very moment Japan becomes structurally dependent on foreign workers. As births collapse and the workforce shrinks, immigration is no longer a policy choice but an economic necessity, raising an uncomfortable question about the honesty of Japan’s political debate.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Law / Technology

 by Jaffa Levy

OpenClaw, Moltbook, and the Legal Vacuum at the Heart of Agentic AI

OpenClaw and Moltbook mark the shift from AI that advises to AI that acts. As autonomous agents execute tasks without direct supervision, they create real harm without clear defendants. This article examines how OpenClaw and Moltbook expose a growing liability vacuum that law and regulators will be forced to confront

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Britain / Economics

 by Jaffa Levy

AI Is Raising Productivity. Britain’s Economy Is Absorbing the Gains

This is the second article in a series examining why artificial intelligence can raise productivity without raising living standards. While the first piece focused on how AI increases output per hour, this follow-up explains why Britain’s economic structure absorbs those gains instead of translating them into broader prosperity.

Defence / Israel

 by Jaffa Levy

Israel’s Draft Crisis Is Not About Religion: Under War and Legal Pressure, the Army Adapts While Politics Preserves Exemptions

Israel’s conscription dispute is not mainly about religion or identity. Under the pressure of war and court rulings, the state is building special ultra Orthodox service units that restrict women’s routine presence, while draft legislation leans toward targets and gradual measures, leaving the manpower burden concentrated on those already serving.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Companies / Economics / Finance / United States

 by Jaffa Levy

Elon Musk Moves xAI Into SpaceX as Power Becomes the Binding Constraint on Artificial Intelligence

Elon Musk has consolidated his artificial intelligence venture xAI into SpaceX in a deal valued at around 1.25 trillion dollars, framing the merger as a response to a deeper constraint now shaping AI’s future. Behind the valuation story lies a harder question about power, infrastructure and limits that SpaceX alone cannot wish away.

Economics / China / History / Long Read

 by Jaffa Levy

Why Western Theory Still Struggles to Explain the Chinese Economy

For more than forty years, the Chinese economy has sustained growth, industrial upgrading, and social stability under a system Western economics said could not function. It was not just cheap labour, exports, or repression. It was an institutional invention that fused markets with state power. The uncomfortable question is no longer why the Chinese economy rose, but why prevailing theory still cannot explain it.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Psychology

 by Jaffa Levy

Why Treating AI as a Friend or Confidant Is a Dangerous Mistake and How It Can Lead, in the Worst Cases, to Suicide

Conversational AI is no longer just answering questions. It is shaping belief, identity, and decisions in moments of vulnerability. As people turn to chatbots for therapy, relationship advice, and emotional support, the risk is no longer theoretical. When fluent language nudges users toward despair, self harm, or even suicide, the absence of accountability stops being a technical issue and becomes a public safety failure.

Defence / Iran / Israel / United States

 by Jaffa Levy

War with Iran: Does Anyone Still Have the Power to Stop a Process Already in Motion?

Military deployments, diplomatic signalling, and regional positioning around Iran are no longer isolated acts of deterrence. They are forming a process that advances even in the absence of a formal decision. This essay examines how force posture, political sunk costs, and incompatible assumptions may already be constraining the ability of any actor to stop escalation once it begins.

Commentry / China / Journalism / Opinion

 by Jaffa Levy

When Economic Analysis Becomes Narrative: A Case Study in China Doom-Writing

A widely shared analysis claims China has “missed its chance” and is locked into economic decline. Even accepting its data, the conclusion does not follow. This rebuttal examines how selective metrics, historical analogy, and irreversibility claims are used to turn ambiguity into certainty—and why that reasoning fails under scrutiny.

BRICS / Economics / India

 by Jaffa Levy

The Exit Ramp: How Countries Are Reducing Their Dependence on the Dollar

The dollar still dominates global finance, but states are no longer willing to rely on a single set of payment pathways. From instant domestic systems to new cross-border settlement platforms, a parallel financial infrastructure is taking shape — less about replacing the dollar than about reducing dependence on it.

Defence / Russia / Ukraine

 by Jaffa Levy

Ukraine’s Donbas Army Faces a Choice Between Withdrawal and Collapse

Russia now controls most of Donbas. What remains is a fortified Ukrainian army compressed into Kramatorsk and Sloviansk and sustained by just two vulnerable supply routes. Rather than storming these fortresses, Russian forces are methodically degrading the roads and rail lines that keep them alive. The decisive question is no longer territory, but whether Ukraine withdraws in time.